How do you calculate your unit economics?
Here is a story… ^{1}
Two feijoa growers were chatting at a weekend market.
One of them was selling bags of fruit from the back of his truck, and had a long queue of people waiting to buy some.
But he wasn’t happy.
He complained to his friend, “I’m selling lots of feijoas, but I just don’t seem to be making any money!”
“Well”, said his friend eager to help, “how much does it cost you to grow a bag’s worth of feijoas?”
“$4”, said the first farmer, as he took another order from a happy customer.
“And, how much are you selling the bags for?”
“$3”, said the first farmer, with a proud smile.
“Oh, I know your problem”, said his friend, “you need to get a bigger truck!”
It’s easy to mock the grower. Who would be that naive, right?
Actually these kinds of unit economics are very common in early-stage ventures, especially when you are growing fast, where building and sustaining momentum requires you to be investing ahead of your growth^{2}.
If you have a traditional business model, understanding your profitability is reasonably straightforward – when you make a sale the revenue and the costs of goods sold are normally obvious, so all you are left to do is divide the amount spent on sales and marketing by the number of sales made to get an average cost of acquiring a customer, and you already have a pretty good picture of the health of your business. The feedback loops are short.^{3}
However, with a software-as-a-service or subscription business model, where customers are paying a monthly or annual subscription, it quickly gets much more complicated. In order to calculate the revenue from a new customer, you need to know not only how much they pay, but also estimate (a.k.a. often guess) how long they are likely to remain a customer. Likewise, to determine what it costs to provide the service, you need to consider the total costs you incur over the whole time they will remain a customer.
Keeping on top of the maths can be hard work – the calculations are confusing; it’s difficult to even find a consistent formula to use; and a lot of what is written about this stuff is pretty dense and academic. Plus there is a long list of different metrics to calculate. All of this makes it hard to know if your business is in good shape or not.
So, let’s try to make it simple…
To understand your unit economics you just need to answer three questions about your venture:
The average revenue you make per subscriber is easy to calculate: take the total revenue you earned in the period and divide the the total number of subscribers you had. If you’re growing really fast then you might want to be a bit more savvy in calculating the number of subscribers, otherwise you can normally just use the number of subscribers you had at the start or end of the period.
Average Revenue Per Subscriber (ARPU) = Revenue / Number of Subscribers
The average tenure of a subscriber is much more complicated, because it requires you to estimate churn as part of considering how long, on average, each subscriber will remain a customer. In the most simple case, average tenure is the inverse of your current churn rate.
Average Tenure = 1 / Churn
See also: Estimating Tenure for some more complex approaches to calculating this value.
Once you have those two values you can estimate^{4} the lifetime value of a subscriber:
Lifetime Revenue = ARPU * Average Tenure
It’s always difficult to accurately predict future events like repeat purchases or churn, so these calculations are often inaccurate. You might find it easier to limit the time horizon to something that you have more confidence about - for example, rather than trying to estimate lifetime revenue ask yourself what you expect the revenue from each customer to be over the next year.
Annual Contract Value (ACV) = ARPU * 12
Another option is to use the length of your runway - i.e. how much do you expect the revenue from each customer to be before you run out of cash in your current mode!
Here you need to consider all of the costs associated with providing your service. These will likely include some direct expenses (e.g. payment processing costs), website hosting costs (e.g. AWS or Azure), tools (e.g. customer support platforms) and staff costs (e.g. all of your customer support and infrastructure teams.
CTS = (Total Cost of Service / Number of Subscribers) * Average Tenure
Based on that, you can calculate the lifetime value of a customer:
Lifetime Value (LTV) = Revenue - CTS
Here you need to consider all of the costs associated with sales and marketing. These will likely include some direct expenses (e.g. advertising costs), tools (e.g. salesforce automation platforms) and staff costs (e.g. all of your sales and marketing team costs). Depending on your approach to sales, sometimes individually-negotiated discounts or promotions are also included as a cost of acquisition.
CAC = Total Cost of Acquisition / Number of New Subscribers Acquired
With those three numbers, you can calculate your gross profit and margins on a per customer basis:
Gross Profit = Revenue - (CTS + CAC)
Gross Margin = Gross Profit / Revenue
If you prefer a picture, graphing these values like this is a nice way of visualising the various components:
It’s important to note, the gross profit is not always positive! If the amount you spend on acquisition is greater than your revenue then you may make a loss on a per customer basis. You’re effectively selling your $4 bags of feijoas for $3!
You can also calculate one of the most popular ratios for a SaaS business model:
CAC:LTV = CAC / LTV
A popular rule of thumb says that the “healthy” value of this ratio is 3+.
The value of this ratio depends mostly on how stable and predictable your churn rate is, because both LTV and CTS depend so heavily on your estimate of tenure.
An alternative measure, that takes churn out of the equation, is to calculate the payback period (i.e. the number of months that it will take to earn back the average acquisition cost) or use the annual value rather than lifetime value as the denominator in the equation.
Payback Period = CAC / ARPU
CAC:ACV = CAC / (ARPU * 12)
There are a number of common problems with these calculations:
When there is only one person or a small team covering multiple areas of the business, it’s difficult, if not impossible, to split staff costs into the different areas. So, for example, until you have a separate sales and support team then it probably doesn’t teach you much to calculate separate CTS and CAC values.
When you only have a small number of customers even little changes can make a big difference. So, for example, it likely doesn’t make sense to calculate a CAC value if you only have a handful of new customers per month or if sales are lumpy rather than consistent.
Likewise, a small customer base often leads to volatile churn rates. Some months you may have a large number of customers churn, and other months you may have none at all (and all of these calculations break if you think your churn rate is 0%!)
One remedy is to calculate the churn over a longer time frame - i.e. you can calculate a rolling three-month churn rate, so that spikes in one particular month are averaged out a little. However, be aware when you do this you take an already lagging indicator and make it even more lagging.
When your customer base is small it can distort some of the cost components included in these calculations. So, for example, costs like fixed payment processing costs, rent (if you apportion this to teams as part of these calculation) or hosting and tooling will have better economies of scale if/when you’re bigger.
When you first start spending on sales and marketing it’s very common for the results to be all across the spectrum - some of your experiments will be very fruitful and some will be complete flops. While you’re in that mode it’s important to realise that your CAC is likely to be very unflattering. The important thing here is to make sure you’re not just flailing. You can do this by looking at the trends over time - in theory your CAC should reduce as you start to work out what works (and do that more), and what doesn’t (and do that less).
It’s increasingly common for SaaS ventures to have people focussed on customer success (as distinct from sales or support). But where do you include this team in these calculations? Are they part of the sales team (i.e. onboarding new customers is an important part of converting potential customers into subscribers) or are they part of the customer support team (i.e. ensuring customers are successful is an important part of creating happy customers that don’t churn)? The reality is nearly always both.
Ultimately it doesn’t matter to the overall gross profit calculation, provided you include the costs somewhere, however from experience, expect some robust debate internally about which metric should capture these costs.
Once you’ve understood your unit economics, and are more confident that you’re making money on a per-customer basis, the next level up is to set your sights on profitability.
This requires you to ask two additional questions:
Here you need to consider all of your fixed costs (sometimes called overheads), including all of the tools and staff costs that are not captured above (i.e. the cost of your product development and admin teams etc).
Customer Target = Fixed Costs / Gross Profit Per Subscriber
This gives you a snapshot in time, based on current costs, but it’s also useful to think ahead to what these costs are likely to be in the future when calculating this number.
Finally you need to ask yourself how much you’re going to need to invest before you get to the point where the per customer profits are covering all of the costs of the business, and how you’re going to fund that gap. Perhaps you can bootstrap by reinvesting the profits on your existing customers into growth, or perhaps you’re planning to raise investment. Either way, being able to draw your cash curve will help you press ahead with confidence that you have the runway required to get to a good outcome.
This example shows three alternative cash curves.
The only variable is the churn rate: blue=2%, red=4%, yellow=8%
So, don’t be like the feijoa grower in our story, losing $1 on every customer you gain and trying to solve this by investing in larger and larger trucks. As you grow, take the time to understand your unit economics, and constantly ask: with the current business model, where is the biggest opportunity for improvement?
The first version of this anecdote I heard was from Mark Clare - there are many variations and the details have changed often and significantly in the retelling over the years, but the fundamental point remains the same. ↩︎
Or, as Andressen Horowitz succinctly put it in their SaaS Valuation Primer: “Growth hurts (but only at first).” ↩︎
Even ecommerce or marketplace business models can benefit from thinking about unit economics - e.g. if you have an online store consider the loyalty of your customers - if you have a lot of repeat business you might be overestimating the success of your current acquisition spend. ↩︎
It’s important to emphasise the “estimate” here. See: What’s your true LTV? by David Skok. ↩︎
If you’re a more traditional accounting type, you may prefer to abbreviate this as COGS, for “Cost of Goods Sold”. ↩︎